Faith and the Friars

Monday- Faith is so fascinating to me. It's a word we all know, and have in some fashion, but where it came from and why we have it is almost impossible to explain. It's no different for myself.

I've always had faith in the Padres. Faith they could become a regular contender; that they could become an organization that is looked at as a standard for success. Eighteen-years waiting patiently, filled with hope and anticipation, has unfortunately yielded pretty minimal results. So the next natural question would be: does that same faith remain within me today? The answer: no. The youthful but selfish faith I had as a child, where I was hoping for the Padres to be good, simply so I could say my team is the best, has been crushed, obliterated and ground into dust. It has been replaced by one far stronger, better and grounded in humility and love.

I've gone through a pretty big personal transformation the last nine months. In that time I have found God and accepted Jesus Christ as my Lord and Savior. That may turn a lot of people off, unfortunately. I promise this series is going to be Padres oriented, but The Lord and his teachings are the center-point of my beliefs, and because of that it will be impossible to write this without God's Word. And while I hope those of you who do stick around feel God's love and peace through this series, and do accept Jesus as your Lord and Savior, at the very least I hope the value of his ways is evident and revealed through these writings. I won't get too much into my own testimony for why I accept Jesus Christ in this series, but am more than happy to share with anyone that wants to hear it.

What I will get into in this series, is how God's Glory can be revealed in every aspect of the world if we let it, and that includes sports! This is a problem I've faced while trying to establish consistency here at Rabbit Hole Sports. I keep thinking to myself: "what is everyone going to like? How can I make this appealing to everyone?" But that's the grievance I have with sports culture. It's a consistent mindset based on gaining maximum attention without regard for intellect. Instead of pushing out stuff just for attention, I needed to figure out how to articulate the things I find passion for. And while sports is a big part of it, I needed to come to the realization that God's part is greater, and it always is.

God gave us this earth to enjoy and glorify his name. In this series I will aim to show how that is possible in sports, through the San Diego Padres. Perhaps an example of God's perfect plan, but what better team to do so than the one named after Christian priest's? Roll your eyes if you want, but of all the teams God could have made me a fan of, it was this one. This beautiful, historically broken franchise with so much light shining through it. From the city itself, to the uniforms, the fanbase and even the roster, there is so much good about this franchise, and so much more waiting for it.

So without further ado, let's get into how this season has started!

The Breakdown-

Six games is not a sample size to get too worked up over. The Padres made it a lot simpler to stay calm by going an entertaining 3-3. Within those six games however, there was a lot to be optimistic about, and a fair amount to skeptical of. You'll notice this will be a pretty consistent sentiment of mine throughout this series. Not too high and not too low. If you're looking for someone who is going to flip their opinion of the team based a singular game, series, or even couple of weeks, you've come to the wrong place.

This is something Jesus preaches, having a strong foundation so current circumstances don't cloud our judgement and destroy our faith. It ties perfectly into Luke chapter 6:46-49: "So why do you keep calling me 'Lord, Lord!' when you don't do what I say? I will show you what it's like when someone comes to me, listens to my teaching, and then follows it. It is like a person building a house who digs deep and lays the foundation on solid rock. When the floodwaters rise and break against that house, it stands firm because it is well built. But anyone who hears and doesn't obey is like a person who builds a house right on the ground, without a foundation. When the floods sweep down against that house, it will collapse into a heap of ruins."

When we don't build our faith on a foundation, it's easy to have it destroyed when times get tough. One thing that I've recently come to realize is what the saying "God is good" really means. It doesn't mean that when we put our faith in God that everything that happens to us is going to be easy and there is no hardship. It means that everything that happens to us, God makes it workout for his good plan. If we don't have a foundation however, we are unable to see this, and we will abandon God, believing he's forsaken us. This is something seen throughout The Bible from Old Testament to New.

This is what the season is all about for the Padres. Ensuring they have a strong foundation. That's what this team has lacked the past couple of seasons. When the team broke out in 2020. It was a group of guys that went through the ringer together. But in past years that group has been broken up for the acquisition of some top talent. A decision that's hard to argue with, but at the same time, appeared to come at the cost of a group that stays together consistently when times get tough. Obviously I'm not in or around the organization, so I can't give any personal testament to this, but from my experience watching sports, when a team with a lot of talent underperforms, it is typically because they don't stick together when things get tough. That's the blessing of the opportunity the Padres have this season.

They have a lot of new faces, but a lot of them have been in the organization for multiple years, and most are either young or on long-term contracts, which means this group will likely face some adversity, but also be somewhat forced to find ways through it. Which may lead to an up and down season, but have substantial long-term payoff. I know it's something longtime Padres' fans have had to be for quite a while, but to everyone who claims to be part of the friar faithful, whether old or new, I ask for you to be patient just a little longer. It's a daunting task, but when we come to the realization that patience isn't a tool we pull out in times we want to get things, but a state we should constantly live in, it becomes a lot easier to take a deep breath, and appreciate the beauty of the moment. With that said, lets talk about some of the beauty to appreciate about this team.

What to Like:

1. The offensive upside- After losing a bat like Juan Soto, it was a real question mark as to how good offensively this team could be. Again, six games likely won't be indicative of an entire seasons results, but having two games with thirteen runs on the board already is a fantastic sign. This isn't an improvement from last year, as offensive upside was always there, but the consistency of hitting enough to win never was. That will remain to be seen, but the fact that the Pads put up 15 runs in a game they surrendered 11 was a great sign. An even bigger positive when breaking the game down. The Padres hit early, but the Dodgers remained on their hip the whole game, but unlike last year where the offense couldn't get that put away hit, the Padres got one in the form of a Manny Machado three-run shot. That to me is big. Time and time again it felt like the stars of this team had chances to get big hits but couldn't come through, so for that to happen against the best team in baseball, in game 2, I'd say that's an ideal start.
2. Xander Bogaerts- It hasn't quite been the power surge Bogaerts enjoyed at the start of last season, but Bogaerts has been put in the leadoff spot to start the year. Analytics probably don't love his start, as all his hits are singles, and his OPS sits at just .718 (10% below league average), But he's getting on base at a .385 clip, scoring six runs and driving in four. He's thriving in the most important statistical department for a table setter, is coming up with hits when the team needs them, and when he gets on base he's also scoring. No question some balls in the gap will go a long way, and likely be necessary to maintain this rate of production, as ground ball hits do have a particular element of luck to them. However, one needs to look no further than Mr. Padre himself, Tony Gwynn, to see that punching a ball between to infielders has as much an element of art and skill as it does luck.
3. Luis Campusano- Campy has been outstanding to start the year. Another guy who has come up with timely hits with runners on base, and been beyond impressive with his ability to hit to all fields. As evidence to this I highlight his double down the third base line vs the Dodgers, and his opposite field home run vs the Giants. A 1.000 OPS is going to be a tough rate to continue at. If he did he would be a top candidate for National League MVP, which I and every other Padres' fan would probably love, but also not what I would use to measure a successful season from Campusano. If he stays healthy, his timely hits continue, and he's pushing an .800 OPS by season's end, he should be considered a mainstay in the lineup for years to come.
4. Jake Cronenworth- After a definite down season last year, Jake's off to a great start this campaign, and similar to Campusano has shown an ability to hit to all-fields, something he struggled with last year, as he seemed far too pull-happy. With the exception of a ball literally going through his glove, it's been the usual for him defensively. I had my fair share of hesitation as to whether putting him in the top three of the order could be too much pressure while trying to reestablish himself, but he's been exceptional, hitting .375, with 3 doubles, a triple, and seven runs driven in.
5. Jackson Merrill- The decision to make the 20-year old, Merrill, the everyday centerfielder added some excitement to the start of the year. He hasn't had a scorching hot start at the plate, but has had a couple big hits. The real thing that has stood out to me has been how he's looked defensively. I wouldn't describe it as a perfect centerfield, but he's looked confident running down balls hit over his head and toward the gaps. A missed pop up by Ha-Seong Kim yesterday, that was ruled an infield fly controversially, probably could have/should have been caught by Merrill, who theoretically had a much better angle to go for the ball, but depending on his alignment before the pitch, which I didn't get to see, I could be proved wrong. Nevertheless, a 20-year old making his big league debut in a position he hasn't played before, and an important one like center, is impressive and deserves recognition.
6. Fernando Tatis Jr.- I was a little surprised when I looked at Fernando's stat line. He's hitting .304, and slugging .609. For some reason it hasn't registered with me that he's hit this well, which is evidence to a couple things: number one is that he came on the scene and erupted to such a level that he has created borderline impossible expectations to meet, and secondly, that his two biggest hits in terms of statistical impact, came in an 8-3 loss, so result wise they had zero impact. I don't say this to try to brush aside the numbers, but rather as a reminder to myself to be realistic in what I'm expecting from him. While I still believe there's an element of flash and excitement from his game that is still missing compared to his first couple of seasons, I do believe flashes of it can be seen. The example I offer was in the bottom of the sixth of one of the games versus San Francisco, but I can't remember which game in particular. One of the two the Padres lost if I remember right. But it was the bottom of the sixth, a 3-2 count, and Cronenworth was hitting. Tatis went on the pitch, and it was a chopper for a routine groundout, but on the play Tatis decided to try for third and got in safely. This was the thing I loved about Fernando when he first started playing. A baserunning aggressiveness that put defenses and pitchers constantly on edge. I understand part of the concern about this is getting hurt, but it's such a vital part to what separates him from other players, and I believe getting hurt has a lot more to do with what a players' habits are off the field and how they take care of themselves. Baseball is a challenging game, and it only makes it that much harder when you ask the guy who's suppose to be your best player to play at 85 or 90 percent.
7. Yuki Matsui- I haven't talked much about the pitching yet because I wouldn't describe it as good so far. Matsui is an exciting exception. In four innings of work this year he's yet to surrender a run, and has issued just one free pass. His strikeout rate likely needs to improve in order to maintain these results (2 strikeouts so far, for a rate of 4.5/nine innings), but he's got the movement on his pitches to be bullish. On top of that, call me old school, but being able to throw a lot of strikes and induce consistently weak contact is a great starting place for any pitcher.
8. Yu Darvish- Coming off an injury-filled season, it's a huge positive that Yu began the campaign with a pair of nice starts. It'd be great to see him start to work more efficiently and get deeper into games as the year progresses, but the fact he's faced some trouble in both his starts and been able to hold things down is an excellent sign. He's had trouble keeping things under control when teams start to get on base the past couple of seasons, and as a result has been more boom or bust than you'd like from a top of the rotation guy. From my perspective this is because he tries to work a lot more carefully when guys get on base, instead of being aggressive and trusting that his stuff can win in the strike zone. It sounds counter-intuitive, but the more an opponent gets on base/hits against you, the more you need to dare them to keep doing it.

Things that will need to be addressed-

1. Quality starts- The Padres starting pitching hasn't necessarily been bad. Joe Musgrove's numbers are pretty ugly, but his first start he had a big lead and needs credit for at least forcing the issue and being aggressive in the zone. In his second start he got hit hard in the first, but after that settled down and allowed just one more run while working into the sixth-inning. But the starting pitching has not been good at getting deeper into games. Just two starts have seen guys get through the fifth inning (Darvish and Musgrove in the first two games versus the Giants), and none have seen one survive the sixth. Even when taking into consideration that pitchers have a shorter leash to begin the year, things don't get that much better, as guys have been consistently throwing around 75-80 pitches by the end of the fourth. The friars have the arms in the rotation to be able to get six innings of work more regularly than most, and it's something that will need to happen more to ease the load on the bullpen, and give the offense more low-pressure at-bats.
2. Power, particularly from the left-hand side of the plate- Beyond Tatis and Machado, this lineup doesn't have any overwhelmingly terrifying power threats. As I mentioned before, that is in big part due to the fact that the team just saw the most terrifying left-handed power threat in all of baseball traded away. A thing that I think ties back to the theme I'm trying to introduce here, which is the team needs a foundation, and while trading Soto was a tough band-aid to rip, it's one that can have a massive impact in that regard, but this is the short-term sacrifice. The offense has already shown it's capable of exploding, but from a projection standpoint, the level of power suggests those kinds of outbursts will happen less frequently as the year progresses. This problem could solve itself if guys like Merrill, Campusano, and Pauley can have break out campaigns. That might be the most fun thing to keep an eye on this season: can a young player breakout and truly establish himself as part of this lineup's core?
3. Bullpen depth- I was really hoping that this would be a strength of the team, and I'm still optimistic that it can be. Matsui could become what we're looking for, and that's a true shutdown inning guy, but that will once again, likely correlate with his ability to produce more swings & misses throughout the season. The same can be said for Enyel De Los Santos. The pair have been the most impressive so far with seven combined innings and no runs allowed. With better starting pitching, and continued offensive output, this isn't the biggest issue, but the question of who's going to be the guy out of this bullpen (beyond Suarez as the closer) is one without an answer.

What to look for this week?

The main thing to watch will be if the pitching can find its footing. Offensively, I'm satisfied with the start, and while I would be more than welcoming to continued double-digit run efforts, I'm not going to let that have overwhelming influence on my outlook for this year's team. The more important thing is if the pitching can start getting deeper into games. A continued reliance on the bullpen to eat large chunks of innings leads to a fatigued bullpen, and a fatigued bullpen in April is a recipe for disaster.

We'll get a fun watch to start the week with Matt Waldron taking the mound tonight vs St. Louis, in Petco. The knuckle-baller is getting the nod as the fifth-man in the rotation to start the year. Locking that spot down will allow guys to settle into their roles and hopefully help this team create some early rhythm, getting off to a hot start in April. The fellas will also get their second crack at the Giants this weekend, this time in San Francisco. This team is facing good competition in their first few series', and hopefully it can be used as a springboard to a year of competitive Padres' baseball.

Until next week, God bless, and let's go friars!